2016: Growth, but not for all

Overall trends in Amsterdam

From January until September 2016, the number of overnight stays in Amsterdam showed an influx of 7,4% compared to the year before. Het number of international visitors increased with 9,5%. However, the number of domestic visitors dropped with 2,8%. The first three months of 2016 showed the largest part of growth. The European Chairmanship of the city of Amsterdam may have attributed to this rise in visitors. The total number of overnight stays for business reasons remained relatively stable in the first nine months of 2016, with a growth of 0,3% compared to 2015.

When looking at hotel overnight stays of visitors coming from the core markets, the largest growth can be seen from visitors coming from Germany (+19,3%), the United States (+19,0%), Belgium (+14,1%) and the United Kingdom (+13,2%). The number of hotel overnight stays from French visitors increased with 5,1%. A decrease can be seen with visitors hailing from Italy (-0,7%) and Spain (-3,5%). There was a remarkable decrease in visitors from Brazil (-32,4%), Russia (-22,2%) and Japan (-17,4%). This is quite in accordance with the general visitor trends that have been apparent in Europe for a while now. The domestic economical and political situations in these core market countries are the probable cause for these trends. All percentages are compared to the same period of 2015.

In the first nine months of 2016, Amsterdam had a room occupancy rate or 81,3%. This is relatively high compared to other European cities, as the city was only topped by Edinburgh, London and Barcelona. When looking at RevPAR (revenue per available room) a 6,2% increase can be seen in Amsterdam, which is slightly above average of the RevPAR growth in other European cities.

The Easter effect and the Brussels terrorist attacks

Depsite the terrorist bombings in Brussels on March 22^nd, the number of overnight stays in Amsterdam increased with 1,4%. Even Belgian and French visitors continued to visit Amsterdam. The growth in April however was less steep compared to the preceding months. This may be caused by the Brussels attacks, but this differs per market. It can be argued that visitors from outside Europe may see bigger risks for their visit to Amsterdam compared to European visitors, as non-Europeans may judge the continent as a whole. This trend can be seen with visitors from China: In the first quarter of 2016, there was a 40% growth in hotel overnight stays from Chinese visitors, while the second quarter only showed a 10% growth and the third quarter even showed a decrease of 14%.

Apart from the effects of these terrorist attacks, the Easter weekend may also have had an effect on the number of overnight stays in Amsterdam. In 2016, Easter fell on March 27^th, while a year earlier, Easter fell on April 5^th. This change in holiday calendar may have had an effect on a decline of 7% of hotel overnight stays of Dutch visitors.

Summer 2016

During the summer months, the number of hotel overnight stays continued to increase (+3,7% in the third quarter). However, this growth is smaller than the first and second quarter. This declining growth may be caused by the earlier mentioned terrorist attacks, but also by the ‘Brexit’. The Brexit caused the British Pound to decline in value, which increased the cost for a visit to Amsterdam by visitors from the United Kingdom. However, this did not cause a decline in visitors from the UK. These events however may be the cause for decline in UK visitors in the third quarter.

In the third quarter, the number of hotel overnight stays of domestic visitors in Amsterdam declined with 6,7%, while this number increased for the international visitors (+5,6%). The number of overnight stays of domestic visitors in the region around Amsterdam however did increase (+6,0%). Lower accommodation prices in the region may have caused these visitors to stay outside of Amsterdam.

Schiphol airport arrivals and museum/attraction visits

The number of arrivals of foreign passengers at the Schiphol International Airport has increased with 12,2% from January until November 2016 compared to the year before. The number of museum visitors has also increased with 1,1% until October 2016 compared to the year before. In the first quarter of 2016 and in July there was a large growth in museum visitors. The number of attraction visitors until October shows a small decrease with 1,1% compared to 2015.

Regional developments

The number of hotel overnight stays in the Amsterdam region in the first nine months of 2016 increased with 5,4% compared to the same period in 2015. The number of overnight stays from domestic visitors increased with 6,0% and for the international visitors with 4,7%. The visitor trends in the region are comparable to the ones in Amsterdam, though the growth in domestic visitors is higher than in Amsterdam. The number of museum visits in the region increased with 4,6% in the first ten months of 2016. The highest growth occurred in the first quarter and in September. The number of attraction visits in the region also increased slightly with 0,7%.

Future

The growth in the number of hotel overnight stays continues, and remains above European average. However, shifting trends in different markets may lead to insecurities in the future. Some markets experience high growth in hotel overnight stays, while others see sharp declines. These shifts may cause the position of the Amsterdam Metropolis to become more fragile. Conditions for tourism sectors with a strongly depending on a certain visitor background group may worsen. It is clear that political changes in different areas and sectors as well as increased threats of terrorism may alter future developments in the Amsterdam Metropolis region.

Sources

This piece is based on data from CBS, Visitor Insight, The European Destination’s Observartory, The European Central Bank and Tourmis.